Scenario War Room

What it does

Modeling cascading what-if scenarios across business functions when facing compound adversity or major strategic decisions.

Procedure

When this skill is activated, Chalie follows these steps:

1. Use recall to surface the company’s current metrics, runway, headcount, and any prior scenario analyses.
2. Use recall to surface any prior scenario inputs, then ask the user to define up to three scenario variables, each with: what changes, estimated probability, and timeline.
3. Use write_file to map the impact of each variable across relevant business domains: cash and runway, revenue, product, engineering velocity, people, and operations.
4. Use write_file to model cascade effects — show how Variable A triggering consequences in one domain amplifies or accelerates Variable B’s effects.
5. Use code_agent to compute quantitative impacts such as runway changes, ARR gaps, or burn multiple shifts under each scenario combination.
6. Use write_file to produce outputs at three severity levels (mild, moderate, severe) with specific financial and operational consequences for each.
7. Use write_file to define for each scenario combination: pre-committed hedges (actions taken now regardless), conditional triggers (the specific signal that activates a response), and the response playbook.
8. Use write_file to save the scenario model, cascade map, and hedge playbook.

Version

v1 (curated)